Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
