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Entering the planet's most popular museum in broad daylight, taking eight pieces of priceless historical gems and disappearing into the city traffic on simple scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, executed for global fame and ensuing movie adaptations.

Experts who observe trends in international art crime, however, see the recent heist at the Louvre as a more practical matter: the latest in a series of quick-hit thefts focused more on the monetary worth of valuable gems or materials than the artifacts’ significance, continuing a pattern that has emerged over the last decade in Germany, Britain and the US. The venue, they suggest, would have been of secondary concern to the thieves.

“One might wonder why criminals who want to steal expensive jewellery are breaking into a globally renowned museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” said an expert in art recovery. “It's straightforward: it’s because these days a high-end boutique is more secure.”

A spate of aggressive retail store thefts mean that many outlets have beefed up their protection in the past few years, with security personnel on their locations and wares no longer kept on display overnight. Museums, on the other hand, look more exposed, in part because of the inherent reason of being accessible institutions in historic buildings, and partly the financial situation in many western countries.

“After the pandemic, authorities across the world have reduced spending on police and the arts funding,” noted Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it shows how at risk our institutions have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The robbery of the items – including jewelry pieces made up of eight sapphires and hundreds of gems, the tiara of a historical figure featuring thousands of diamonds and a extremely expensive crown once owned by a royal that the thieves left by the roadside on their way out – has inevitably been compared with the 1911 theft of the famous painting from the Louvre, carried out by the worker Vincenzo Peruggia.

More relevant comparisons may be the 2019 burglary of valuables from Dresden’s Green Vault Museum worth over millions, the taking of a £4.75m gold toilet from a UK landmark the that year, the recent heist of a valuable item from a European museum or even a spate of thefts of collector items from American institutions.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Smash, grab, and melt it down as quickly as possible.”

If the items were to remain intact, experts say, the criminals would struggle to sell them. “It's impossible to sell something as recognizable as the museum's gems on the legal marketplace”, commented an art crime researcher of the a relevant organization.

“They are too well-known, particularly given the cultural authorities has released images of the pieces. Even a private collector or an sales venue would want to see documentation confirming proper ownership before handling such remarkable pieces.”

In the previous years, institutions were often reluctant to go public about the disappearance of famous works of art and would remain quiet out of shame. These days, as art thefts are more reported on, the storage and sale of stolen art is risky business for any lawbreaker.

“If you steal a Picasso, it has to stay complete or it becomes worthless, and you have to devise a scheme to conceal it, maybe by passing it around difficult criminal actors,” noted Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the danger of an partner telling the police to collect a reward.”

For similar reasons, an art detective said it was highly improbable that the robbery had been ordered. “Commissioned theft is something from Hollywood movies,” he said. “Nobody would touch this. It’s all around the world and in all the newspapers. If you acquire these, if you are apprehended, you end up in prison. You cannot show it to your friends, you cannot leave it to your family.”

Modifying taken items by dismantling or reshaping does lower the value. When it comes to gems, it also comes with significant danger because contemporary cutting techniques give stones a bigger and brighter appearance, and antique-cut stones would either draw unwanted attention or reduce value for a concealment.

Importantly, however, dismantling or reshaping eliminates the proof of the theft. “My guess is that the robbers will try to take the items to places with diamond expertise like Israel, India or even as close as a city, and find someone to cut out the gems,” said Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about protective steps at the museum, with a leaked state auditor report expected to be published next month pointing out “considerable” and “ongoing” delays in modernizing equipment and observing that security cameras were lacking in multiple areas. But specialists say showing valuable objects in historic buildings with a steady stream of guests comes with risks that are not possible to eliminate completely.

“Older structures are more difficult to protect,” said an art crime professor. “They often have large accessible windows that allows for thieves to escape, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you are unable to install them with secure windows.”

The most solid security systems for buildings should be conceptualised “as a stronghold”, noted a security advisor. “It should include several layers to deter attackers.”

Contemporary structures are equipped with state-of-the-art surveillance systems or in-built seismic detectors that raise alarm about a smashed window in real time, but old museums may be reluctant to uglify their exteriors. Detection devices can be hard to install to stuccoed ceilings. Sensors may also have to be turned off during the daytime as crowds walk through a museum.

The timing of the Louvre raid, which occurred between morning hours in Paris, was common of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “There’s a good reason why robberies tend to happen at either start or end of day. It’s often when guards change their shifts and before the museum is crowded who actually act as extra protection.”

Technological progress may have thrown up new gadgets that can notify more rapidly and efficiently, but it has also given robbers new methods with which to circumvent security measures. In Paris, the thieves accessed the museum’s upper level with a mobile equipment and cut through a glass pane with a battery-powered disc cutter.

Elaine Sciolino said the discussion in France about the 232-year-old building had primarily focused on crowd control in recent years, and less on protection.

The institution has an in-house team of about 50 full-time firefighters, but their mission is mostly to protect the collection from fires and flooding. “There isn't a rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the safety of the Louvre all comes down to government support and money, and at present France lacks sufficient resources.”