Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
