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In October 2022, when Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he was the fifth consecutive UK leader to take up the role in six years.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is occurring in the French Republic, now on its sixth prime minister in two years – three of them in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in return for support from Socialist lawmakers as the price for his government’s survival.

But it is, in the best case, a temporary fix. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a ongoing governmental crisis, the likes of which it has not witnessed for decades – possibly not since the start of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no easy escape.

Governing Without a Majority

Essential context: from the moment Macron called an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, France has had a divided assembly split into three warring blocs – the left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – without any group holding a clear majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and budget shortfall are now almost twice the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to approve a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.

In this challenging environment, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu presented his government team – which turned out to be largely unchanged from before – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

To such an extent that the next day, he stepped down. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a respectful address, he blamed political intransigence, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for another 48 hours in a last-ditch effort to secure multi-party support – a mission, to put it mildly, not without complications.

Next, two ex-prime ministers openly criticized the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, vowing to reject any and every new government unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to prevent a vote. The leader's team announced the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron kept his promise – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a critical address, the 39-year-old PM spelled out his budget priorities, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who oppose Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s flagship reform would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already on board, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, by no means certain to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – some are still itching to topple it.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and longer-term survival – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR want him out.

To achieve that, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in two years is, like his predecessors, finished.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the outlook afterward look grim.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would see reduced representation, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his replacement would disband the assembly and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not escape its predicament until its leaders acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that clear majorities are a bygone phenomenon, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Many think that cultural shift will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and even disincentivizes – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”