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For a brief period, Trump seemed to adopt a strong position on the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering statements of "severe ramifications" during the summer in case Russia's president persisted obstructing truce discussions, the former president finally enacted substantial restrictions on Russia's two largest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action significantly impacted the Russian leader's ability to finance his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, through his recently unveiled detailed peace initiative for the conflict, which was drafted by American and Russian diplomats excluding Ukrainian or European involvement, Trump has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia approach.

Benefiting Invasion

This initiative would effectively reward Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while placing the country's political freedom in peril. Despite bold statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be upheld", significant aspects of the proposal in reality weaken that same sovereignty. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his real-estate background, the former president seems to view the Ukrainian conflict as a simple land disagreement, like giving Putin a portion of Ukraine's land will please the leader. Yet, Putin's invasion is not merely about dominating a destroyed region of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's apparent goal to weaken it so it ceases to acts as an enticing standard for the Russia's population of the democratic leadership that his deepening autocracy prevents them.

Territorial Giveaways

While maintaining in place the presently separated Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would force the nation to give up all of Donetsk region. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its military have been unsuccessful to occupy in over a decade of warfare, this concession would make Ukrainian military defenses severely compromised.

This region is the place of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the well-established protective structures that constitute a key barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, leaving Putin a open path to Kyiv in case he later choose to renew the war.

Defense Restrictions

Furthermore, in a action that would enable renewed hostilities easier for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to reduce the scale of its military from their present approximately 800,000 soldiers to a cap of 600,000. Importantly, the proposal sets no equivalent constraints on the invading army.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's efforts to depict the nation's legitimate government as radicals, Trump's proposal states: "Every radical belief system and activities must be rejected and forbidden." As if to underscore this element, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a peace deal. However, the proposal places no obligation that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by holding elections in Russia.

Defense Guarantees

Admittedly, the plan makes Russia promise not to "invade bordering nations" and to "enshrine in regulation its position of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has breached similar accords in the history – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to honor Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of seized territory in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – for what reason should we have confidence in Russia now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external security guarantees. While the plan threatens a "decisive unified military response" should Russia renew its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the details vary from unclear to troubling. The proposal would not just block Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit member states from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, thus preventing the reassurance force, likely led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Russia from rebuilding his reduced troops, restocking, and resuming aggression.

World Concern

Another parallel deal according to sources would offer the nation with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any subsequent "major, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault endangering the peace and security of the allied countries." That suggests a military response. Yet in contrast to a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's most reliable protection against renewed Russian aggression – the credibility of the side agreement would depend on the willingness of Western powers, like Trump, to respond militarily to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not